4.8 Months of Supply and Sellers Still Win Every Offer
People hear '4.8 months of supply' and think the market has finally tipped toward buyers. That number sounds close to balanced, and balanced sounds like relief for anyone trying to buy. I pulled every listing in Santa Clara County through October 13, 2026, and here is what the data actually shows: sellers are not giving an inch.
Supply looks balanced on paper, but every home sold above its asking price
The rule of thumb most people know: under 4 months favors sellers, over 6 months favors buyers. At 4.8 months, Santa Clara County sits in the middle. That middle is supposed to mean give and take. It did not.
The typical home sold for 102.6% of what the seller first asked. Not 100%. Not 99%. One hundred and two point six. That means buyers, on the whole, paid more than the asking price. Not a little more on a few homes. That was the typical result across 898 sales.
Only 19 of the 1,449 homes now for sale ever dropped their price. That is 1.3%. The other 98.7% are sitting exactly where they started. And not one home in the data came off the market without a sale. Zero gave up.
Nationally, the picture is different. The National Association of Realtors put the national supply at 4.6 months in July 2026, nearly the same number, and national existing-home sales fell 2.2% year over year in September. Santa Clara County is at 4.8 months and still producing results that most sellers only dream about.
Does more supply mean buyers win? Not in Santa Clara County.
The strongest proof is at the top of the market. Homes priced at $2.75M and up sold for 106.6% of what they first asked. Those are not desperate sellers taking whatever they can get. Those are sellers with more buyers than they need.
Even the most affordable homes held firm. Homes priced under $1M sold for exactly 100% of their first asking price. No discounts. No room carved out for a buyer who thought the market had softened.
Look at it by city and the story does not change. Mountain View sold at 107.6% of asking. Los Altos at 108.1%. Palo Alto at 106.8%. Even Gilroy, the most affordable city in the data, came in at 100.9%. Supply at 4.8 months did not produce a single city where the typical buyer paid less than asking.
- Stop waiting for supply to fix it. 4.8 months sounds balanced, but the sales say otherwise. Every price range, every city, every size of home sold at or above asking.
- Price to the market, not to your hope. Only 1.3% of homes for sale dropped their price. The sellers who priced right did not need to.
- If you are buying, come in ready. The typical buyer paid 102.6% of asking. Going in below asking in this market means going home without the house.
What this means for you right now
If you are selling, the data says price it right from day one and expect to get more than you asked. Only 19 homes in the entire county dropped their price, and the typical cut was $31,000. That is a $31,000 signal that the first price was wrong. Homes priced well did not need to go there.
If you are buying, the hardest thing to hear is also the most useful: this market is not waiting for you. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.40% as of October 8, 2026, up from 6.30% a year earlier (Freddie Mac). That rate is already in the price buyers are paying. And buyers are still going over asking. Santa Clara County added 4,400 jobs between July and August 2026 alone, reaching 1,188,200 total jobs in the metro area (California EDD). Demand is not going away.
Your next step
(925) 519-9099Text me what you want in a home, and I will send you the homes for sale in Santa Clara County that fit.
Text me- My market data, every listing in Santa Clara County, as of October 13, 2026
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 8, 2026
- National Association of Realtors, September and July 2026 existing-home sales reports
- California Employment Development Department, August 2026 employment data