Published October 26, 2026 in Market Update

One part of the market got tighter even with softer local price trends

By Michael Tessaro

Real estate, Santa Clara County-20 ZIP codes: 95035 for Milpitas, plus 19 high-activity residential San Jose ZIP

Most prices in this market slipped a little. But the tightest ZIP code got even tighter. That gap matters for what you do next.

Redfin reported San Jose home prices rose just 0.7% month over month in September. Year over year, Redfin put the gain at 2.9%. Those are modest numbers. Yet the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted only 1.2 months of supply in ZIP 95111 for the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is the tightest reading in this market.

Low supply means buyers have fewer choices. It also means a well-priced home there does not sit long. The Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 46.9% of homes in 95111 went under contract within two weeks of listing. That share jumped 16.5 points from the same period a year before.

Speed still matters, even where prices eased

The median sale price in 95111 dipped 1.7% from a year before, the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows. Prices fell in most of these 20 ZIP codes over the same period. But a price dip does not mean buyers have more time. In 95111, homes sold faster and buyers paid over list more often.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 49.3% of homes in 95111 selling above list price. That share rose 13.1 points from a year before. Homes sold there averaged 102.6% of their list price.

How the tightest ZIP compares with others

Not every ZIP is this tight. The chart below shows months of supply across several ZIP codes for the three months ending August 31, 2026, as counted by the Real Estate Data Aggregator.

Where speed was sharpest across the market

The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked how quickly homes went under contract across all 20 ZIP codes. ZIP 95129 led at 57.9% under contract within two weeks. ZIP 95111 was close behind at 46.9%, up sharply from a year ago.

The wider picture: rates and the broader market

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.68%. Those rates shape what buyers can afford and how long they take to decide.

Nationally, Redfin reported U.S. home prices rose 0.25% month over month in September. San Jose outpaced that, up 0.7% month over month, Redfin said. The local market is moving differently from the national average.

What this means for sellers and buyers

Sellers: prices dipped in most ZIP codes. That is a real admission. But homes in the tightest areas still sold above list. Speed of pricing still matters.

Buyers: in ZIP 95111, nearly half of all homes were gone within two weeks. A sharp plan before you look is not optional there.

Across all 20 ZIP codes, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,418 homes sold and 1,430 pending sales in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is a healthy pace. But the supply of 941 homes for sale is spread unevenly. One ZIP can read very differently from the next.